Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
